Relevant Editorials from Mains perspective

THE HINDU

Imitation registry

Nagaland should take note of the minefield that is Assam’s NRC process.

Nagaland is following on the footsteps of its western neighbour, Assam, in the task of setting up a Register of Indigenous Inhabitants of Nagaland (RIIN). This is a variant of the National Register of Citizens (NRC) that Assam has adopted with decidedly mixed results so far. Nagaland claims to have watched the process unfold in Assam, followed it closely, and it will now complete the task of identifying and registering indigenous inhabitants in less than five months, by December 10, 2019. This is more or less the kind of time-line that was followed by Assam, which is yet to publish its final NRC a year after the process began. In two months from July 10, Nagaland hopes to have a list of indigenous inhabitants, after which it will be published and time given till October 10 to file claims and objections, before finalisation. It sounds simple, and Nagaland is considerably less populated than Assam. But the Assam experience shows that in the complex demographies of the Northeastern States, it may not turn out that way. As many as 40 lakh people were left out of the NRC listing in Assam, which seemed aimed to filter out ‘illegal immigrants’. Indeed, in Nagaland, various local attempts have been made to determine non-locals, non-tribals and non-Nagas, and identify what some people refer to as the ‘Illegal Bangladeshi Immigrant’. Two years ago, a town not farther than 15 km from Dimapur, the largest city and the commercial capital of the State, passed a resolution to place curbs on IBIs and devised ways to prevent them from integrating, living or trading in the town. When such is the situation on the ground, in an already volatile region where the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act is routinely extended, it is best that Nagaland proceeds with caution in this enterprise. The RIIN should not ultimately become a vehicle to make outsiders of insiders.

The Assam experiment has no clear end-point. Bangladesh has repeatedly suggested that the process going on in Assam is “an internal matter” of India, implying that there is no deportation possibility here. Other than deepening the existing fault-lines in its own State and rendering the situation even more volatile, it is unclear what the Nagaland government hopes to achieve through the exercise. What happens to the people who are in the end found to be on the wrong side of the Nagland list? The right to appeal and a humane hearing should be in-built in this exercise. The NRC experiment in Assam witnessed extremely divisive political posturing. Other Northeastern states are sure to be watching with keen interest what is unfolding in Assam and Nagaland. Emotive political issues cannot be allowed to drive the compiling of a registry of citizens.

Miles to Go

India has some distance to cover before making self-care interventions freely available:

Self-care, which mostly happens outside the formal health system, is nothing new. What has changed is the deluge of new diagnostics, devices and drugs that are transforming the way common people access care, when and where they need them. With the ability to prevent disease, maintain health and cope with illness and disability with or without reliance on health-care workers, self-care interventions are gaining more importance. Millions of people, including in India, face the twin problems of acute shortage of healthcare workers and lack of access to essential health services. According to the World Health Organization, which has released self-help guidelines for sexual and reproductive health, over 400 million across the world already lack access to essential health services and there will be a shortage of about 13 million health-care workers by 2035. Self-help would mean different things for people living in very diverse conditions. While it would mean convenience, privacy and ease for people belonging to the upper strata who have easy access to healthcare facilities anytime, for those living in conditions of vulnerability and lack access to health care, self-help becomes the primary, timely and reliable form of care. Not surprisingly, the WHO recognises self-care interventions as a means to expand access to health services. Soon, the WHO would expand the guidelines to include other self-care interventions, including for prevention and treatment of non-communicable diseases.

India has some distance to go before making self-care interventions for sexual and reproductive health freely available to women. Home-based pregnancy testing is the most commonly used self-help diagnostics in this area in India. Interventions include self-managed abortions using approved drugs — morning-after pills taken soon after unprotected sex, and mifepristone and misoprostol taken a few weeks into pregnancy — that can be had without the supervision of a healthcare provider. While the morning-after pills are available over the counter, mifepristone and misoprostol are scheduled drugs and need a prescription from a medical practitioner, thus defeating the very purpose of the drugs. The next commonly consumed drug to prevent illness and disease is the pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention. India is yet to come up with guidelines for PrEP use and include it in the national HIV prevention programme. Despite the WHO approving the HIV self-test to improve access to HIV diagnosis in 2016, the Pune-based National AIDS Research Institute is still in the process of validating it for HIV screening. One of the reasons why people shy away from getting tested for HIV is stigma and discrimination. The home-based testing provides privacy. India has in principle agreed that rapid HIV testing helps to get more people diagnosed and opt for treatment, reducing transmission rates.

Is there a case for free rides for women?

Revenues from appropriately changing personal transport can make public transport cheap

Women may soon get to travel for free on buses and Metro trains in Delhi. This gender-based public transport fare subsidy programme, announced by the Aam Aadmi Party government, has not been tested anywhere in India in the past. Proponents claim that the policy will protect and liberate women. Critics argue that it is financially unviable and unfair. As polarised debates over the intent and impact of the policy continue, it is useful to assess whether this idea, in principle, has any merit.

Subsidies to the disadvantaged

Cities often provide public transport fare subsidies to all or some citizens to encourage them to use public transport, or for easing their travel cost burdens. Singapore, for example, offers a discount to rail commuters who are willing to travel before the morning rush-hour. Public transport is free for residents in Estonia. Luxembourg, with a population of about 600,000, has made public transport free for those under the age of 20. Paris, with a population of over 2 million, has announced a comparable plan. Hong Kong has implemented a public transport fare concession scheme for people aged 65 years or more. Berlin offered women a 21% ticket discount for one day in March this year to highlight the gender wage gap. In India, however, urban transport fare discounts are less common, although concessions for seniors, students, and other socioeconomic groups are available for government-operated flights and long-distance railway services.

Fare discounts intend to make public transport truly public as some people are at a relative disadvantage in urban transportation markets due to their unique social, economic, and health circumstances. Article 13 in the United Nations’ Universal Declaration of Human Rights recognises freedom of movement as a basic human right. If we consider transportation as a fundamental social need and providing mobility for the transportation-disadvantaged as our collective responsibility, then any urban transport policy should include subsidies targeted at the disadvantaged. Specific supply-side investments or fare price discounts to help the disadvantaged travel, conduct activities and prosper are therefore justified. Public transport may even need to be free for some. In this context, let’s take the case of women.

Women in India travel far less than men, and this has significant impacts on their education, employment, and enjoyment. A study in Delhi found that college girls, compared to boys, chose lower ranked colleges with safe and reliable transport access. Similarly, an estimated 60% of women workers in India choose to work from home or at a place which is less than a km from home, according to the 2011 Census. The remaining working women tend to rely excessively on public transport, according to a World Bank Study conducted in Delhi. An RTI application revealed that, in 2013, only 13% of Delhi driving licences were issued to women. These findings are suggestive of gender differences in travel choices and patterns.

Wage discrimination, gender segregation in employment, and household labour divisions contribute to gender inequality in transportation. Because men’s jobs are considered to be more valuable, they tend to own the household vehicles and commute privately. This lopsided rationing of household transport budgets also results in women taking slower commute options to save on expenses. When Delhi Metro hiked fares last year, around 70% of women surveyed in a study suggested that they would have to choose a less safe travel option for work, or travel less. Compromises on education and jobs for travel purposes is one of the reasons for women earning less than men, leaving the workforce, and consequently being more cash-poor than men. Finally, limited money to travel also means that women are willing to forgo hospital visits, significantly affecting their health.

There may be a case for free or discounted public transport for women. A subsidy like this is most likely to benefit women who might consider taking up jobs for which they are better suited but are further away from home. Women can engage in a range of activities that promote their well being. Free public transport can therefore bring more women to public spaces, and, consequently, make those spaces safer for women.

The high cost of free rides

Two questions remain. Who will pay for the subsidies aimed at the transportation-disadvantaged? And will such subsidies make it difficult for public transport to achieve its other major goal — reducing car use and cleaning up the air?

To address these questions, we must first recognise that personal motorised vehicle travel is highly subsidised globally, including in India. Believe it or not, driving is cheap. Car and motorised two-wheeler users are not required to pay for the full costs their travel choices inflict on society in the form of traffic congestion, environmental pollution, and distortions in urban form. Promotion of cleaner fuels and vehicle-sharing can reduce but not eliminate the costs. Indian cities must consider pricing interventions such as congestion charges, mileage-based road use charges, parking charges, and higher petrol taxes so that private driving costs better reflect full social costs. London and Stockholm, for example, have been charging for congestion for over a decade. Such measures, in addition to discouraging driving, can help governments generate funds for expanding, improving, and operating relatively cleaner transportation alternatives such as public transport. Better public transport service is key to getting people out of cars, reducing air pollution, and making cities more liveable. It is possible that revenues from appropriately charging personal motorised travel will be sufficient to make travel by public transport cheap or free for the transportation-disadvantaged, without any additional public subsidy requirement.

Even if free public transport for women makes economic sense and seems fair, would all women support the policy? Informal surveys conducted after the Delhi government’s announcement suggests that women are divided in their preference for the policy. Women who feel this policy treats them as lesser citizens should have the choice to opt out. Whether a free public transport pass for women should be income-based is unclear; means-testing for a public transport fare concession programme may not be worth the effort.

Finally, this debate is not for Delhi alone. It’s time that all Indian cities crafted efficient, effective, fair, and context-specific public transport policies. Men and women do not enjoy equal freedom to move in India, and policymakers should act.

Violation of reservation in top posts at Universities

They occupy only around 1 % of top teaching posts:

The introduction of the Central Educational Institutions (Reservation in Teachers’ Cadre) Ordinance, 2019, which is meant to “provide for the reservation of posts in appointments by direct recruitment of persons belonging to the Scheduled Castes, the Scheduled Tribes and the socially and educationally backward classes, to teachers’ cadre in certain Central Educational Institutions established, maintained or aided by the Central Government”, redresses the anomaly found in the recruitment of Other Backward Class (OBC) candidates at higher levels of teaching positions.

The ordinance indicates that reservation to OBCs shall be provided at all levels of teaching, leaving no space of misinterpretation by some universities that had arbitrarily restricted reservation for OBCs to the level of ‘Assistant Professor’.

However, recent advertisements by 13 central universities are in clear violation of the ordinance. Of these, only Allahabad University and Dr. Harisingh Gour University have followed fully the reservation policy by earmarking positions for OBCs at all levels, while the Central University of Kashmir has reservation at all levels except that of ‘Professor’.

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Representation of OBCs

Further, even after a clarification issued by the Ministry of Human Resource Development last month, only the Central University of Himachal Pradesh issued a revised notification providing OBC reservation at all levels of teaching.

Curiously, while the Indira Gandhi National Tribal University — Amarkantak has reserved positions for ‘Economically Weaker Sections’ (EWS) at the levels of ‘Associate Professor’ and ‘Professor’, it has no reserved positions for OBCs. The Tata Institute of Social Sciences, which is known for its commitment to issues related to social justice, too has no reservation at higher levels of teaching positions. The rapidity with which the Central University of Rajasthan has almost reached the last step of recruitment is questionable.

Though OBCs account for about 50% of the country’s population, their representation in all faculty positions in all central educational institutions is only 9.8%. According to a recent report by the University Grants Commission, only 13.87% of positions at the Assistant Professor-level in central universities were occupied by OBCs. The representation became almost negligible at higher levels, i.e. those of Associate Professor and Professor, accounting for just 1.22% and 1.14%, respectively.

Noticeably, the representation of OBCs was less than that of Muslims at higher levels of teaching. Certain communities of Muslims are recognised as OBCs, and if we exclude them, the representation of non-Muslim OBCs in the institutions would become negligible.

In case of violations

Generally, the decision-making power at universities rest upon the Professors and Associate Professors. Professors, who play a significant role in the recruitment process, at times misinterpret the constitutional provisions.

Even if a violation is found, the maximum a court does is to order a correction to the institution’s advertisement, without awarding any compensation to the petitioner or punishment to the violators. Moreover, legal procedure is tedious and hence is generally avoided.

Noticeably, implementation of reservation for SCs, STs and OBCs in higher educational institutions funded by the Centre was delayed for more than 15 years after the announcement, while the same for EWS was done within a month of the announcement. Such differential treatment results in imbalanced representation of a social group at higher levels of teaching and decision-making.

THE INDIAN EXPRESS

The line between OBC and SC:

What is the UP government’s order, and why has it been issued now?

The June 24 letter from the UP Social Welfare Department, sent to all divisional commissioners and district magistrates, refers to an order of the Allahabad High Court (dated March 29, 2017) and directs district authorities to issue caste certificates as per that order after scrutiny of documents.

Copies of the June 24 letter have been sent to Additional Chief Secretary and Principal Secretaries of Appointment and Personnel, as well as the OBC Welfare Department, with a request to take necessary step for execution of the Allahabad High Court order regarding 17 OBC castes — Kahaar, Kashyap, Kevat, Mallah, Nishad, Kumhar, Prajapati, Dhivar, Bind, Bhar, Rajbhar, Dhimar, Batham, Turha, Godia, Maajhi and Machhua.

The High Court order read: “In the event, any caste certificates are issued pursuant to the order impugned, those certificates shall be subject to the outcome of the writ petition. It is open to the petitioner to add all such persons as party respondents, in whose favour caste certificates have been issued.” The writ petition mentioned was against a similar move by the previous Akhilesh Yadav government seeking to include 17 OBC groups among SCs.

The court order on March 29, 2017, came days after the formation of the Yogi Adityanath government, and the letter now comes 27 months later. The delay is explained by electoral concerns. If the state government had made such a move in 2017, demands could have been raised for similar moves in other states. Ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, this could have meant various castes awaiting assent from the Centre, and the ruling party could also have risked alienating the existing SC groups.

Why is it politically significant?

According to an estimate by the UP Backward Classes Welfare Department, these 17 castes make up around 15% of the state’s population. A caste in the SC list gets more government benefits than one in the OBC list. Also, since the OBC population is large, there is close competition among OBC groups for reservation benefits. If these 17 castes are moved to the list of SCs, they will face less competition because the SC population is smaller.

The latest move comes with the risk of turning SC voters away from the ruling BJP and towards the BSP. On the other hand, the BJP can hope to make gains within the 17 newly notified SC groups. These 17 castes are socially most backward, and many survive on small occupations in rural areas. For example, Nishads earn from fishing and Kumhars from making earthen pots. The BJP banks on non-Yadav OBC votes. They are seen to have contributed hugely to the party’s strong performance in UP in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

What happened to the attempts by the previous SP regimes?

In 2005, the Mulayam government amended the Uttar Pradesh Public Services Act, 1994, to provide reservation for SC, ST and OBCs in public services and posts, and to include 17 OBC castes in the SC list. The Allahabad High Court quashed the amendment, terming it unconstitutional, since only Parliament has the power to make such an inclusion. Mulayam had also directed district authorities to issue SC certificates to these 17 OBC castes, after the move was cleared by his cabinet. The Centre, however, did not clear his proposal.

In 2013, the Akhilesh cabinet cleared the same proposal, but the Centre once again rejected it. The same year, the state Assembly too had passed a resolution asking the Centre to include these 17 castes in the SC list.

On December 22, 2016, the Akhilesh government made one more attempt, with the cabinet clearing the proposal, this time after consulting legal experts and getting a survey conducted through the SC-ST Research and Training Institute, an autonomous body. The government decided to send the fresh proposal to the Centre, with the argument that these castes are similar to those already listed as SCs. Although the proposal had been previously rejected, the state government claimed that legal experts had advised that these 17 castes can be given the benefits that are due to SCs by adding a clause to an existing notification of the Personnel Department.

The government issued orders to this effect on December 21 and 22, 2016. These were challenged in Allahabad High Court by an organisation called Dr B R Ambedkar Granthalaya Evam Jan Kalyan (this is the writ petition mentioned in the High Court order of March 29, 2017, which in turn is referred to in the government letter of June 24, 2019).

On January 24, 2017, the court directed the concerned officials at district level not to issue any caste certificate on the basis of the government orders dated December 21 and 22, 2016.

What is the distinction between an OBC and an SC?

The yardsticks for recognising specific castes as SC and OBC are distinct. While extreme social, educational and economic backwardness are common qualifications for both groups, SCs draw such backwardness from untouchability. For OBCs, apart from social, educational and economic backwardness, lack of adequate representation in government posts and services is a criterion. The positive rights guaranteed under the Constitution to SCs are to correct the historical wrongs of untouchability, and critics argue that addition of other castes in the group dilutes that guarantee.

what are the procedures for listing a caste as an SC?

Between 1950 and 1978, six Presidential Orders were issued recognising specific caste groups as SCs. The name ‘Scheduled Caste’ derives from the fact that this is annexed as a Schedule to the Constitution. Article 341(1) of the Constitution prescribes the procedure for regarding castes as “Scheduled Castes”. As per the procedure to make additions or deletions to the Schedule by amending the concerned Presidential Order for a state under Article 341(2), state governments first propose to modify the Schedule. Only proposals agreed by both the Registrar General of India and the National Commission for Scheduled Castes are introduced as a Bill in Parliament. This procedure was adopted by the Ministry of Social Justice and Empowerment in 1999 and was amended in 2002.

A similar provision exists for Scheduled Tribes under Article 342

Child Labour Cases: trend shows decline, government says will eradicate it:

Instances of child labour detected during inspections have reduced successively from 2014 to 2018, figures presented by the government in Lok Sabha show. In a written reply during the ongoing session of Parliament, the Ministry of Labour & Employment list year-by-year figures for instances of violation of the Child & Adolescent Labour (Prohibition & Regulation) Act, 1986 found during inspections, along with prosecutions started and convictions made.

Minister of State (independent charge) for Labour & Employment Santosh Kumar Gangwar said the central government has taken cognisance of the practice of child labour still going on in various parts of the country in spite of a ban.

He said it is committed to eradicating the problem from all parts of the country. The Child Labour Act was amended in 2016 and the amendment provides for complete prohibition of work or employment of children below age 14 in any occupation and process and prohibition of adolescents in the age group 14-18 in hazardous occupations and processes. The Amendment Act also provides for strict punishment of employers for violation of the Act and has made the offence cognisable.

The minister said the government is also implementing the National Child Labour Project (NCLP) since 1988 for the rehabilitation of child labour. Under the scheme, children aged 9-14 are rescued/withdrawn from work and enrolled in NCLP Special Training Centres before being mainstreamed into the formal education system. Children aged 5-8 are directly linked to the formal education system through close coordination with the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan, the minister said.

Europe Heat wave: What caused record temperature: why it is a concern?

Last week, Europe went through a heatwave that lasted six days, smashed temperature records, left two people dead in France and another two in Spain, and caused huge fires to break out, including one that spanned 10,000 acres in France. By Monday, temperatures had dipped in parts of the continent, leading to authorities calling off heatwave warnings, although certain areas such as the south of France continued to swelter.

Gallargues-le-Montueux in southern France hit an all-time high of 45.9°C during the last week. Places in Germany (39.3°C), Czech Republic (38.9°C) and Poland (38.2°C) experienced record highs for the month of June.

Why it is happening

The heatwave in Europe is a result of warm air masses from Africa, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said. The heatwave in Europe follows extreme heat episodes in India, Pakistan, parts of the Middle East and Australia. More events are expected to follow during this northern hemisphere summer, the WMO said.

While some scientists have blamed climate change for these trends, the WMO said it is too early for such an attribution. However, the WMO agreed that the heatwave is consistent with climate scenarios which predict more frequent, drawn out and intense heat events as greenhouse gas concentrations lead to a rise in global temperatures. Apart from heatwaves, various climate models have predicted alternating periods of prolonged droughts and heavy flooding in some areas.

What is a heatwave

Classifying a heatwave varies from country to country, because what is seen as extremely hot in one place may seem within normal range in another. In guidelines published in 2016, the WMO listed several factors to be considered while analysing an extreme weather event such as a heatwave. These include defining a specific threshold for variables such as temperature to be considered extreme, as well as a human perspective of extremes.

The India Meteorological Department does not consider a heatwave unless the maximum temperature crosses 40°C in the plains and 30°C in the hills. Where the normal maximum is 40°C or less, the heatwave departure from normal is 5°C to 6°C and the severe heatwave departure is 7°C or more. Where the normal maximum is more than 40°C, the heatwave departure from normal is 4°C to 5°C while the severe heatwave departure is 6°C or more. In places where the maximum temperature reaches 45°C or more, the IMD declares a heatwave irrespective of the normal.

Health hazard

The heat poses a risk to people’s health, agriculture and the environment, the WMO said. It is the departure from normal — or what people are used to — that makes heatwaves dangerous. A reading of 35°C, which many people in India would be able to cope with, can make people severely ill in Germany. Babies and older people are particularly vulnerable because their bodies are not as well able to regulate their own temperatures as those of young adults. High temperatures can cause exhaustion, heat stroke, organ failure, and breathing problems.

In Europe, because people are not used to extremely high temperatures, many buildings don’t have air-conditioning. In Germany, only 2% of homes are air-conditioned, according to the news portal vox.com. Also, with 72% of the European Union’s population living in urban areas, a heatwave traps them in heat islands as steel, concrete, and asphalt structures absorb heat, Vox said.

Deepening the Unease:

The Jammu & Kashmir Reservation (Amendment) Bill, passed by the Lok Sabha last week, and introduced in Rajya Sabha on Monday, is an ill-advised stirring of the pot on Article 370. The Bill amends the Jammu and Kashmir Reservation Act, 2004 and replaces the March 1, 2019 ordinance providing for reservation in appointment and promotions in state government posts, and admission to professional institutions for certain categories. The Bill will extend to J&K, as did the Ordinance, the 77th amendment (reservation in promotion for the Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes) and the 103rd amendment (reservation for economically-weaker sections of society). The big change from the 2004 Act is that it includes in the eligible categories persons in the state living close to the international border, which in J&K extends from Kanachak to Kathua in the Jammu region, while the original Act applied only to people living close to the LoC, which begins in Rajouri and runs north through Kashmir. No centrally legislated Act can be extended to J&K until the state government gives its assent to such legislation. However, in the absence of a state government, this is being done on the basis of the governor’s assent. Although there is enough by way of precedent on this, such actions further erode the autonomy guaranteed by Article 370, and could be seen as a reason for the troubles in the state.

Of course, Union Home Minister Amit Shah has made no secret of the fact that Article 370, which he describes as a “temporary” provision, needs to be done away with. This is what he told the Lok Sabha during the debate to extend President’s rule in the state. This is also a promise the BJP has made in its election manifesto. There seems to be an impression among influential sections of the ruling regime that doing away with Article 370 (and 35 A), will resolve the Kashmir problem “once and for all”. There could be no more mistaken notion. In all the ideological eagerness to see demographic engineering as the solution to Kashmir, it should not be forgotten that Article 370 is the constitutional provision that mediates the conditional accession of J&K to India in 1947. Doing away with it would be akin to breaking a bridge between Kashmir and the rest of India.

Shah, who visited the Valley last week, would have been briefed about the uneasy calm in the state. Since the Pulwama outrage and the Indian action inside Pakistan, there have been fewer attacks by militants in Kashmir, and virtually no cross-border infiltration, but home-grown radicalism and alienation remain high. Even the security agencies, which have implemented the Centre’s policy of using force to keep a grip on Kashmir for four straight years, know that this cannot be the only instrument. Moderates in the Hurriyat have said they are ready for a dialogue. Rejecting that, and pursuing a divisive and polarising agenda in J&K may yield the BJP some political dividend, but it does not serve the national interest.

Union Budget must focus on reviving investment, address rural distress

Rural distress is real. The first is to recognise it. Drinking water, improving efficiency of existing irrigation systems, rural finance, including temporary waiver of loan repayments, needs funds, which the affected states do not have.

For the Union budget, two priorities are important in the second quarter. The first is to finance a credible package of relief and recovery after a bad monsoon from the angle of drinking water and sowing. The second is to revive investment. The Economic Survey and the budget speech must, as in the past, reflect thinking on critical issues, and not focus on scoring brownie points.

For example, the PMEAC has rightly said that Arvind Subramanian’s critique of GDP changes is silly, since estimating a relationship between GDP and some variables in the past misses the point that productivity is rising. But more serious critiques, like those of the expert group under Sudipto Mandal and past members of the Statistical Commission, have been ignored. An assurance from the JNU-trained finance minister that institutional integrity in the statistical and IMD systems will be respected will be welcome. Her views on real priorities will be eagerly awaited.

Rural distress is real. The first is to recognise it. Drinking water, improving efficiency of existing irrigation systems, rural finance, including temporary waiver of loan repayments, needs funds, which the affected states do not have. The priorities stated in the Niti Aayog’s council meeting are correct. But they do not have allocation powers. The budget should provide funds and an assurance that allocation will be rule based, as in the erstwhile Planning Commission’s formula, rather than by political whims.

Meanwhile, job creation will depend on the revival of industrial production, continuing growth of exports and agricultural revival. But most policies have a lag of around four to six months. In the short run, more money will be needed for MGNREGA. These allocations should be cleared. In the finance minister’s speech, budget estimates should be compared to last year’s budget estimates and not with revised estimates as in recent budget speeches. The Union Budget should concretely raise public investment to revive private investment to reverse the declining growth rate in every quarter. Fiscal deficit is a real issue and leads to pressures on the bank rate and exchange rates. The suggestion is to raise resources by taxation and not to play to the lobby by not cutting consumption by the government and non-government sectors. There are no free lunches and the FM knows that. She must give that stern message. At least, in the first post-election year, we have to be honest. There is little scope for such concessions demanded by industry groups, but rationalisation of tax structures and reduction of slabs in GST are possible. The clean-up of the banking and non-banking financial companies sectors should be honest. These are outside the budget, but they determine the fiscal deficit. So, the flow of funds in the budget papers must honestly reflect that.

The heart of economic policy in the short run is to give fewer lectures on reform, which is well spelt out, but to raise government investment at the central, state and parastatal levels. The economy is suffering from the decline in investment ratios, which given the incremental capital-output ratios explain the declining growth rate, which itself is below the potential of 8 per cent or so. This budget will be judged on that.

Gujarat’s experience conclusively shows that a high enough manufacturing physical output growth rate reduces the work force dependent on agriculture. Even with an employment elasticity of 0.25, with a 12 per cent growth in IIP, employment rises by 3 per cent, which is double the workforce growth rate, and employment will recover.