![\"\"](\"https:\/\/triumphias.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/rural-cotton.jpg\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\n- Between 2003-04 and 2011-12, India\u2019s cotton output more than doubled from 14 million bales (of 480 pounds or 218 kg each) to 29 million bales. In 2003-04, India was the world\u2019s third largest cotton producer (behind China and the US) and seventh biggest exporter (after the US, Uzbekistan, Australia, Greece, Brazil and Burkina Faso), with its imports (0.8 mn bales) actually exceeding exports (0.7 mn bales). <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
- In 2006-07, India overtook the US to become the world\u2019s No. 2 producer. It also emerged the No. 2 cotton exporter, though its shipments, at 4.875 million bales, were way behind the US\u2019s 12.959 million. By 2011-12, not only was the country\u2019s output almost twice that of the US (29 mn bales versus 15.573 mn), even its exports nearly matched the latter\u2019s (11.08 mn bales versus 11.714 mn).<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
- India\u2019s cotton production peaked at 31 million bales in 2013-14. In 2015-16, it displaced China as the top producer of the fibre, which, however, had more to do with the latter\u2019s output registering a much steeper decline than India\u2019s. In the current cotton marketing year (August-July), China has re-emerged as the world\u2019s No. 1 producer. India\u2019s estimated output for 2018-19 is four million bales below the peak of 2013-14 and its exports of 4.5 million bales a fraction of the 11 million-plus bales achieved in 2011-12. The country\u2019s projected shipments this year are below that of the US and even Brazil (see table).<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/triumphias.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/pic.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\n- The above numbers describe, in a nutshell, India\u2019s journey from a net importer of cotton to turning into the globe\u2019s second largest exporter and biggest producer \u2014 in just over a decade. They also capture the stagnation and setback in the more recent period, which has seen the country losing its numero uno position in production and being pushed to No. 3 in exports. <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
- The boom in production and exports during 2003-04 to 2013-14 had partly to do with global prices. As these surged from an average of 62-63 cents per pound (for American Upland varieties) in 2003-04 to 105.4 cents in 2010 and 155.7 cents in 2011, the value of cotton shipments from India, too, rose from a mere $ 205.08 million in 2003-04 to $ 4.33 billion in 2011-12. They remained relatively high at $ 3.75 billion and $ 3.64 billion in the subsequent two fiscals as well, with prices hovering around the 90-cents level.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
- But the real impetus, no doubt, came from Bt technology, which helped the country to more than double production and take advantage of rising international prices.<\/li>
- Indian farmers planted genetically-modified (GM) cotton hybrids \u2014 incorporating a single \u2018cry1Ac\u2019 gene isolated from the soil bacterium Bacillus thuringiensis or Bt and coding for a protein toxic to the American bollworm insect pest \u2014 first in 2002. In 2006, a second-generation Bollgard II cotton, also based on the US life sciences giant Monsanto\u2019s proprietary technology, was launched. The Bollgard II hybrids contained an additional \u2018cry2Ab\u2019 Bt gene, intended to confer more effective resistance to a range of bollworm pests.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
- Thanks to Bt technology, average cotton lint yields in India went up from 302 kg per hectare in 2002-03 to 566 kg in 2013-14, along with expansion in crop area from 7.67 million to 11.96 million hectares during this period.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
- Two things have taken place since then. The first is global prices crashing to 70-75 cents in 2015 and 2016, leading to a plunge in India\u2019s cotton exports to $1.90 bn in 2014-15, $1.94 bn in 2015-16 and $ 1.62 b in 2016-17.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
- Second, no new technology. In 2014-15, when cotton area in the country peaked at 12.85 million hectares and the share of Bt hybrids reached 93 per cent, the effects of infestation, from pests hitherto considered \u2018secondary\u2019 to the American bollworm, began to show up. The Bt cotton based on Monsanto\u2019s existing technologies were found to be susceptible, especially to the pink bollworm (mainly in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh) and whitefly (in Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan). The damage from these so-called secondary pests was evidenced by average per-hectare yields dropping to 511 kg in 2014-15 and 484 kg in 2015-16, before recovering a tad to 542 kg in 2016-17 and 507 kg in 2017-18.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
- Two things have taken place since then. The first is global prices crashing to 70-75 cents in 2015 and 2016, leading to a plunge in India\u2019s cotton exports to $1.90 bn in 2014-15, $1.94 bn in 2015-16 and $ 1.62 b in 2016-17.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
- Thanks to Bt technology, average cotton lint yields in India went up from 302 kg per hectare in 2002-03 to 566 kg in 2013-14, along with expansion in crop area from 7.67 million to 11.96 million hectares during this period.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
- The boom in production and exports during 2003-04 to 2013-14 had partly to do with global prices. As these surged from an average of 62-63 cents per pound (for American Upland varieties) in 2003-04 to 105.4 cents in 2010 and 155.7 cents in 2011, the value of cotton shipments from India, too, rose from a mere $ 205.08 million in 2003-04 to $ 4.33 billion in 2011-12. They remained relatively high at $ 3.75 billion and $ 3.64 billion in the subsequent two fiscals as well, with prices hovering around the 90-cents level.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
- The above numbers describe, in a nutshell, India\u2019s journey from a net importer of cotton to turning into the globe\u2019s second largest exporter and biggest producer \u2014 in just over a decade. They also capture the stagnation and setback in the more recent period, which has seen the country losing its numero uno position in production and being pushed to No. 3 in exports. <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
- India\u2019s cotton production peaked at 31 million bales in 2013-14. In 2015-16, it displaced China as the top producer of the fibre, which, however, had more to do with the latter\u2019s output registering a much steeper decline than India\u2019s. In the current cotton marketing year (August-July), China has re-emerged as the world\u2019s No. 1 producer. India\u2019s estimated output for 2018-19 is four million bales below the peak of 2013-14 and its exports of 4.5 million bales a fraction of the 11 million-plus bales achieved in 2011-12. The country\u2019s projected shipments this year are below that of the US and even Brazil (see table).<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
- In 2006-07, India overtook the US to become the world\u2019s No. 2 producer. It also emerged the No. 2 cotton exporter, though its shipments, at 4.875 million bales, were way behind the US\u2019s 12.959 million. By 2011-12, not only was the country\u2019s output almost twice that of the US (29 mn bales versus 15.573 mn), even its exports nearly matched the latter\u2019s (11.08 mn bales versus 11.714 mn).<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n